{"id":20979,"date":"2023-04-19T16:57:42","date_gmt":"2023-04-19T16:57:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.lacnic.net\/?p=20979"},"modified":"2023-04-19T16:57:43","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T16:57:43","slug":"previsao-matematica-sobre-a-implementacao-do-ipv6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.lacnic.net\/pt-br\/previsao-matematica-sobre-a-implementacao-do-ipv6\/","title":{"rendered":"Previs\u00e3o matem\u00e1tica sobre a implementa\u00e7\u00e3o do IPv6"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Emiro A. Molina-Cuevas<\/a>, Ph.D.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Em parceria com o LACNIC, realizamos uma pesquisa profunda<\/a> com o intuito de proporcionar previs\u00f5es sobre a evolu\u00e7\u00e3o da implementa\u00e7\u00e3o do IPv6 nas tr\u00eas regi\u00f5es principais da Am\u00e9rica Latina e do Caribe que s\u00e3o atendidas pelo LACNIC: Am\u00e9rica Central, Am\u00e9rica do Sul e Caribe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baseado em uma proje\u00e7\u00e3o estat\u00edstica e assumindo um comportamento semelhante ao atual, com este trabalho buscamos conhecer o momento aproximado em que a implementa\u00e7\u00e3o do IPv6 superar\u00e1 50% dos usu\u00e1rios da Internet nos pa\u00edses das tr\u00eas regi\u00f5es da Am\u00e9rica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O prop\u00f3sito principal de modelar a evolu\u00e7\u00e3o da implementa\u00e7\u00e3o do IPv6 \u00e9 prognosticar seu comportamento e contribuir para a tomada de decis\u00f5es nas organiza\u00e7\u00f5es da regi\u00e3o, mediante o uso efetivo do protocolo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para dar andamento a esta pesquisa, recorremos a modelos estoc\u00e1sticos de componentes n\u00e3o observados (UCM em ingl\u00eas) e usamos as estimativas mensais da porcentagem de usu\u00e1rios do IPv6 que h\u00e1 em cada sub-regi\u00e3o. Ap\u00f3s conseguirmos esse modelo, com os devidos ajustes e as propriedades adequadas, vamos utiliz\u00e1-lo para a realiza\u00e7\u00e3o dos progn\u00f3sticos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uma precis\u00e3o importante \u00e9 destacar que se trata de proje\u00e7\u00f5es estat\u00edsticas, e, como tais, baseiam-se no comportamento hist\u00f3rico das observa\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uma previs\u00e3o estat\u00edstica \u00e9 uma estimativa quantitativa sobre o valor mais prov\u00e1vel de uma vari\u00e1vel aleat\u00f3ria no futuro, com uma faixa de valores futuros prov\u00e1veis e um n\u00edvel de confian\u00e7a espec\u00edfico. Neste caso, escolhemos um n\u00edvel de confian\u00e7a de 90%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para efetivar as estimativas mensais, recorremos aos dados di\u00e1rios proporcionados pelo LACNIC e disponibilizados pelo Open Data, provenientes das estat\u00edsticas do Google IPv6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

J\u00e1 as porcentagens de usu\u00e1rios da Internet na regi\u00e3o foram retiradas de fontes da CEPAL, CEPALSTAT, da Internet World Stats e dos Digital Reports. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

De acordo com os resultados das proje\u00e7\u00f5es, a Am\u00e9rica Central ser\u00e1 a primeira em atingir 51% de usu\u00e1rios com IPv6 para dezembro de 2023, com um valor projetado de 51.45 % e percentagem de erro de 6.54 %. Na Am\u00e9rica do Sul, a data estimada para atingir 51% \u00e9 no final de janeiro de 2027, com um valor projetado de 51.07% e uma margem de erro de 4.74%. No Caribe, os usu\u00e1rios com IPv6 chegar\u00e3o a 51% em outubro de 2028, com um valor projetado de 51.31% e margem de erro de 20.26%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Leia o estudo na \u00edntegra <\/strong>aqui<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emiro A. Molina-Cuevas, Ph.D.\u00a0 Em parceria com o LACNIC, realizamos uma pesquisa profunda com o intuito de proporcionar previs\u00f5es sobre a evolu\u00e7\u00e3o da implementa\u00e7\u00e3o do IPv6 nas tr\u00eas regi\u00f5es principais da Am\u00e9rica Latina e do Caribe que s\u00e3o atendidas pelo LACNIC: Am\u00e9rica Central, Am\u00e9rica do Sul e Caribe. Baseado em uma proje\u00e7\u00e3o estat\u00edstica e assumindo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15338,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[532],"tags":[1305],"archivo":[1346],"taxonomy-authors":[1382],"tipo_autor":[],"class_list":["post-20979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ipv6","tag-ipv6","archivo-edicoes-anteriores","taxonomy-authors-emiro-a-molina-cuevas-pt-br"],"acf":{"author":"","related_notes":[20312,20870]},"yoast_head":"\nLACNIC Blog | Previs\u00e3o matem\u00e1tica sobre a implementa\u00e7\u00e3o do IPv6<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.lacnic.net\/pt-br\/previsao-matematica-sobre-a-implementacao-do-ipv6\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LACNIC Blog | Previs\u00e3o matem\u00e1tica sobre a implementa\u00e7\u00e3o do IPv6\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Emiro A. Molina-Cuevas, Ph.D.\u00a0 Em parceria com o LACNIC, realizamos uma pesquisa profunda com o intuito de proporcionar previs\u00f5es sobre a evolu\u00e7\u00e3o da implementa\u00e7\u00e3o do IPv6 nas tr\u00eas regi\u00f5es principais da Am\u00e9rica Latina e do Caribe que s\u00e3o atendidas pelo LACNIC: Am\u00e9rica Central, Am\u00e9rica do Sul e Caribe. 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